Football is back, and tonight I’m releasing my NFL preseason pick completely free to readers of Pappy’s PlayBook.
After breaking down Friday’s preseason card, studying the expected quarterback rotations, starter workloads, roster depth, coaching plans and the current betting market, one game stood above the rest at the number available.
Free NFL Preseason Pick: Denver Broncos -3.5
Game: Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons
Date: Friday, August 14, 2026
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
Pick: Denver Broncos -3.5
Rating: to win $500
Playable To: Broncos -3.5 at -115 or better
Pass: Denver -4 or higher
This is a price-sensitive preseason wager.
If you can still get Denver -3.5, that is the number I want.
I would not chase this bet to -4 or -4.5.
Why I Like Denver -3.5 Tonight
Preseason handicapping is completely different from betting the NFL regular season.
I am not betting Denver simply because I believe the Broncos are the better overall football team.
In August, the bigger questions are:
Who is actually going to play?
How long will each quarterback be on the field?
Which team has the more functional second- and third-unit offense?
What happens after the starters leave?
Those questions are much more important than traditional regular-season power ratings, and that is where Denver begins to separate in this matchup.
Denver Has a Clearly Defined Quarterback Rotation
One of the biggest positives for the Broncos is the certainty surrounding their quarterback plan.
With Bo Nix not playing in this preseason opener, Denver is expected to divide the game between Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger, with each quarterback receiving approximately one half.
That matters considerably.
Instead of handicapping a game where quarterbacks could rotate after a few unpredictable series, we have a much clearer picture of what Denver’s offense should look like throughout the night.
Stidham brings legitimate NFL experience, while Ehlinger has also spent several seasons in NFL systems and gives Denver mobility and experience against reserve defenses.
The Broncos should therefore have competent quarterback play for all four quarters.
That is valuable in preseason football.
Atlanta’s Starters Won’t Be Out There Long
Atlanta will give its starting offense some work, but the planned workload is limited.
Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start, with the Falcons’ first unit receiving roughly one series or around 10 plays.
After that, Atlanta transitions into its reserve quarterback rotation with Cooper Rush and rookie Jack Strand.
Michael Penix Jr. is not expected to play.
The presence of Tagovailoa gives Atlanta an early offensive advantage, and that is one reason this is not a higher-rated wager.
But this bet is about the entire game — not the opening possession.
Once Atlanta begins removing its starters, I prefer Denver’s quarterback stability and overall four-quarter setup.
The Second Half Is Where Denver Can Separate
The strongest portion of this handicap comes later in the game.
Ehlinger is expected to receive an entire half of football for Denver.
Atlanta, meanwhile, should eventually transition to Strand, an undrafted rookie quarterback competing for a roster position.
That does not mean Strand cannot play well. Preseason football is filled with young players taking advantage of opportunities.
But if I am laying points in an NFL preseason game, I would rather have an experienced quarterback handling an extended workload than depend on a rookie making his first NFL preseason appearance.
That gives Denver a potential advantage in the third and fourth quarters.
And those are exactly the quarters where preseason spreads are so often decided.
Denver’s Starter Plan Also Helps
Denver is expected to give many of its starters approximately 15 snaps before transitioning deeper into the roster.
Atlanta’s projected starter workload is closer to one series or approximately 10 plays.
Those workloads are not dramatically different, but they reinforce the overall theme of this matchup.
Denver appears to have a structured plan for getting meaningful early work before moving into a quarterback rotation that should remain functional throughout the game.
That is the type of preseason setup I want to target.
The Biggest Concern: Denver’s Offensive Line
This is not a perfect handicap.
Denver’s biggest issue is its offensive-line depth, particularly at center.
The Broncos have dealt with multiple injuries at the position, creating uncertainty surrounding quarterback-center exchanges, communication and pass protection with the reserve units.
That matters significantly in preseason football.
A quarterback advantage means very little if the offense cannot protect the quarterback, execute clean snaps or stay ahead of the chains.
Reserve offensive-line problems can quickly create sacks, penalties, turnovers and stalled drives.
This concern is the primary reason I am keeping this wager at 5-Star rather than upgrading it.
My NFL preseason betting framework places heavy emphasis on quarterback rotations, playing-time certainty and reserve offensive-line functionality. A full-game favorite must survive all four quarters, not simply look better on paper.
What Could Beat This Pick?
Every wager needs a realistic loss script.
The biggest danger for Denver is Atlanta jumping ahead during Tagovailoa’s early work and the Broncos failing to recover because of offensive-line mistakes.
If Denver’s makeshift center rotation creates bad exchanges, sacks or drive-killing penalties, the quarterback advantage could become much less meaningful.
Cooper Rush is also an experienced NFL backup capable of keeping Atlanta’s offense functional.
That creates a scenario where the Falcons could build an early lead and force Denver to spend the second half trying to make up ground.
Those risks are real.
But at Denver -3.5, I believe the overall quarterback rotation and projected second-half advantage are enough to justify the wager.
Play Denver -3.5 at -115 or better.
I am not recommending Denver -4 or -4.5.
Preseason betting markets can move extremely quickly when quarterback rotations and playing-time information become public.
Once that information reaches the market, the original advantage can disappear.
There is a meaningful difference between asking Denver to win by four points and asking the Broncos to win by five.
If your sportsbook has already moved beyond my playable number, do not chase it.
There will always be another opportunity.
Official Free NFL Preseason Pick
Denver Broncos -3.5
Best Number: Denver -3.5
Playable Price: -115 or better
Pass: Denver -4 or higher
This is the official free NFL preseason pick for Friday, August 14 from Pappy’s PlayBook.
As always, check the betting line before placing your wager.
The handicap is based on the quarterback rotations, playing-time plans, roster availability and betting market available before kickoff. Any significant late change to those plans can change the value of the wager.
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