The Chicago Bears enter the 2026 NFL season as defending NFC North champions with a franchise quarterback, one of football’s most creative offensive play callers and considerably higher expectations than they carried one year ago.
Chicago finished 11-6 in Ben Johnson’s first season, defeated Green Bay in the Wild Card round and pushed the eventual NFC champion Los Angeles Rams into overtime in the divisional round.
The breakthrough was real. It was also unusually dramatic.
The Bears repeatedly rescued games late, led the NFL in takeaways and won approximately two more games than their point differential projected. That creates the central question for this Chicago Bears 2026 season preview: can Caleb Williams and the offense improve enough to offset likely regression in close games and turnovers?
This analysis covers Chicago’s roster, coaching styles, complete schedule, betting odds, win total, fantasy targets and final record projection.
Last updated: August 11, 2026
Chicago Bears 2026 Outlook at a Glance
| Category | Bears outlook |
|---|---|
| 2025 record | 11-6 |
| 2025 finish | First in NFC North |
| Playoff result | Lost in divisional round |
| Head coach | Ben Johnson |
| Offensive coordinator | Declan Doyle |
| Defensive coordinator | Dennis Allen |
| Current win total | 9.5 wins |
| Primary offensive strength | Caleb Williams and a versatile group of pass catchers |
| Primary defensive strength | Ball production and secondary talent when healthy |
| Biggest offensive question | Left tackle and center stability |
| Biggest defensive question | Pass rush and injured secondary |
| Early record projection | 10-7 |
| Projected division finish | First or second in NFC North |
| Preseason betting position | Pass on 9.5 at current prices |
Chicago owns a higher offensive ceiling than it did last season. The market has also removed much of the discount, and several of the forces behind the 11-win finish are difficult to repeat.
What Happened to the Bears in 2025?
Chicago’s season began with consecutive losses to Minnesota and Detroit. The Bears then won 11 of their next 13 games, captured their first division title since 2018 and earned their first playoff victory since the 2010 season.
Williams set a franchise record with 3,942 passing yards and produced a 27-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. D’Andre Swift rushed for 1,087 yards, Kyle Monangai added 783 and rookie tight end Colston Loveland led the team with 713 receiving yards.
The official Bears statistics show how evenly Chicago distributed its offensive production. No receiver reached 800 yards, but the running game and deep collection of targets gave Johnson multiple ways to create favorable matchups.
The defense was much more volatile.
Chicago led the NFL with 33 takeaways and 23 interceptions. It also ranked 23rd in scoring defense, 29th in total defense and near the bottom of the league in sacks.
The Bears produced only about 9.1 expected wins from their point differential. They won seven games in which they trailed during the final two minutes, an extraordinary achievement that also signals regression risk.
Chicago does not need to repeat that late-game record if the offense becomes more efficient earlier. It cannot assume the same collection of turnovers and last-possession finishes will return automatically.
Major Chicago Bears Offseason Changes
The Bears used the offseason to create financial flexibility and add speed to the defense.
Important Additions
- S Coby Bryant
- LB Devin Bush
- C Garrett Bradbury
- OT Jedrick Wills Jr.
- WR Kalif Raymond
- S Cam Lewis
- S Xavier Woods
- DT Neville Gallimore
- QB Case Keenum
- S Dillon Thieneman
- C Logan Jones
Important Departures
- WR DJ Moore
- C Drew Dalman, retired
- LB Tremaine Edmunds
- S Kevin Byard III
- S Jaquan Brisker
- CB Nahshon Wright
- WR Olamide Zaccheaus
Trading Moore to Buffalo was the largest offensive change. He caught 64 passes for 682 yards in 2025 and remained a dangerous run-after-catch player, but Chicago received a second-round selection and created a clearer path for Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III.
Dalman’s retirement was less predictable and may be more difficult to absorb immediately. Chicago traded for Bradbury and drafted Jones, the 2025 Rimington Trophy winner, but center communication remains a major August variable.
Defensively, the Bears moved on from several established starters. Bryant was signed to stabilize the safety position, then suffered a hyperextended knee, bone bruise and small fracture during camp. His estimated eight-to-10-week recovery makes his early-season availability uncertain.
The official Bears transaction page provides the complete list of roster moves.
Chicago Bears 2026 Draft Class
Chicago selected seven players, beginning with a safety who should start immediately.
- S Dillon Thieneman, first round, No. 25 overall
- C Logan Jones, second round, No. 57 overall
- TE Sam Roush, third round, No. 69 overall
- WR Zavion Thomas, third round, No. 89 overall
- CB Malik Muhammad, fourth round, No. 124 overall
- LB Keyshaun Elliott, fifth round, No. 166 overall
- DT Jordan van den Berg, sixth round, No. 213 overall
Thieneman recorded 95 tackles and earned second-team All-America honors at Oregon in 2025. His range, tackling and communication give Dennis Allen flexibility to rotate coverages. Chicago needs him to learn quickly because Bryant and several other defensive backs are unavailable or limited.
Jones offers the long-term answer at center. His wrestling background, leverage and experience in Iowa’s pro-style protections fit the position, but Bradbury may open the season as the safer veteran option.
Roush gives Johnson another large, versatile tight end. That selection reinforces the likelihood of extensive two-tight-end usage with Loveland and Cole Kmet.
Thomas adds return ability and manufactured-touch potential. Muhammad gives Chicago another competitive outside corner, while van den Berg has already earned expanded camp opportunities with his pad level and effort.
The complete class is available through the official Bears draft tracker.
Ben Johnson’s Coaching Style
Johnson’s offense is difficult to defend because formations rarely reveal the final intention.
His established principles include:
- Heavy pre-snap motion
- Multiple personnel groupings
- Play action from convincing run looks
- Creative red-zone designs
- Misdirection and constraint plays
- Aggressive fourth-down decisions
- Routes that create leverage rather than demand isolation wins
- Defined touches for running backs and tight ends
- Weekly plans built around the opponent
Johnson does not call offense as a collection of unrelated plays. He builds sequences. A formation used for a running play early can return later with a bootleg, screen or vertical route attached to it.
Chicago’s 2025 offense was dangerous but inconsistent at the start of games. The next step is producing rhythm without requiring Williams to improvise on third down or in the final two minutes.
That matters to bettors. A more efficient scripted offense would strengthen first-half team totals and reduce the need to depend on fourth-quarter comebacks.
Caleb Williams’ 2026 Fantasy and Betting Outlook
Williams made a substantial second-year improvement.
He threw for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns while limiting himself to seven interceptions. His creativity outside structure produced some of Chicago’s most important plays.
The remaining concern is down-to-down consistency.
Williams completed 58.1% of his passes. Some incompletions came from deliberate aggressiveness or throwaways, but the number also reflects timing misses and stretches in which the offense failed to stay on schedule.
Reasons for Optimism
- Second season in Johnson’s offense
- Elite off-script playmaking
- Odunze and Burden can win at every level
- Loveland is emerging as a primary target
- Kmet and Roush support heavy personnel packages
- Swift and Monangai create run-game balance
- Wright anchors the offensive line
- Williams protected the football in 2025
Reasons for Concern
- Left tackle is unsettled
- Center changed after Dalman’s retirement
- Moore is no longer available
- Burden will miss the preseason with a groin injury
- Completion rate must improve
- Williams can hold the ball while searching for explosive plays
- The late-season schedule contains several elite defenses
Betting outlook: Williams’ passing markets are strongest against defenses that struggle to contain movement and cannot create pressure with four rushers. His rushing and longest-completion markets may offer more value than raw passing yards against aggressive man coverage.
Fantasy outlook: Williams is a high-upside QB1. A modest increase in completion rate and rushing touchdowns could push him into the top tier.
D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai
Chicago produced one of the NFL’s best backfield combinations in 2025.
Swift rushed 223 times for 1,087 yards and nine touchdowns. Monangai added 783 yards and five scores on 169 attempts.
Swift remains the more dynamic receiver and perimeter runner. Monangai provides contact balance and allows Johnson to preserve Swift’s efficiency.
The likely fantasy mistake is assuming one back must eliminate the other.
Johnson has repeatedly demonstrated that he can create valuable roles for two runners. Swift can lead the backfield without handling every short-yardage carry, while Monangai can remain useful without becoming the official starter.
Fantasy position: Swift is an RB2 with weekly RB1 upside. Monangai is a high-value handcuff and standalone flex candidate.
Betting variable: Swift receiving markets become more attractive against strong fronts and pressure-heavy defenses. Monangai rushing attempts carry the most upside when Chicago is favored and likely to protect a lead.
Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III
Moore’s departure changes the target hierarchy.
Odunze caught 44 passes for 661 yards in a season affected by a foot injury. His size, route detail and contested-catch ability make him the leading outside receiver.
Burden caught 47 passes for 652 yards during the regular season and became more dangerous as his role expanded. He separates quickly, creates yards after the catch and can be moved across the formation.
Burden strained his groin during training camp and is expected to miss the preseason. Chicago believes he can return for Week 1, but bettors and fantasy managers should verify full practice participation rather than relying only on an active designation.
Best fantasy target: Burden at a discount created by the injury news
Safest receiver: Odunze
Best-ball profile: Both receivers benefit from Williams’ vertical aggression
Primary warning: Chicago’s tight ends will command meaningful target share
Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet and Sam Roush
Loveland became the first Bears rookie since 1983 to lead the team in receiving yards.
His 713-yard season established him as more than a developmental tight end. He can align in-line, in the slot or outside and has the movement skills to threaten linebackers and safeties.
Kmet remains a dependable blocker and red-zone target. Roush adds another large body capable of supporting condensed formations and play action.
Chicago can use two tight ends without becoming predictable. Loveland’s receiving ability allows the Bears to present a run-heavy look and still attack vertically.
Fantasy position: Loveland is a legitimate TE1 with breakout potential. Kmet is a touchdown-dependent TE2 whose real-football role may exceed his weekly fantasy volume.
Chicago Bears Offensive-Line Analysis
The expected group includes:
- LT Braxton Jones, Jedrick Wills Jr. or a camp winner
- LG Joe Thuney
- C Garrett Bradbury or Logan Jones
- RG Jonah Jackson
- RT Darnell Wright
Wright is the foundation. Chicago signed him to a four-year extension after he earned second-team All-Pro honors in 2025.
Thuney remains an elite stabilizer at left guard, while Jackson gives the line power on the right side.
Left tackle and center create the uncertainty.
Ozzy Trapilo is recovering from a torn patellar tendon suffered in the playoffs. His recovery may progress faster than initially expected, but Chicago cannot build its Week 1 protection plan around an uncertain return.
Bradbury offers experience at center. Jones offers greater long-term upside. The competition must produce a clear answer before the regular season because Johnson’s motion and protection system places substantial communication responsibility on the middle of the line.
Betting variable: Downgrade Williams passing Overs and Chicago team totals against elite fronts until left tackle and center prove stable.
Dennis Allen’s Defensive System
Allen prefers an adaptable 4-3 structure built around disguise, coverage variation and situational pressure.
Chicago’s defense is expected to feature:
- Four-man fronts
- Pattern-match coverage
- Late safety rotation
- Simulated pressure
- Man coverage in selected situations
- Zone concepts designed to create vision on the quarterback
- Aggressive third-down packages
- Multiple roles for safeties
The scheme produced takeaways in 2025 but did not create enough consistent pressure.
Allen’s greatest challenge is separating repeatable defensive quality from turnover variance. Interceptions are valuable; they are not a replacement for stopping the run, creating negative plays and forcing punts.
Bears Pass Rush and Front Seven
Montez Sweat remains the leading edge defender.
Austin Booker flashed late in 2025, while Dayo Odeyingbo and Shemar Turner are returning from major injuries. Grady Jarrett and Gervon Dexter Sr. provide interior experience, with van den Berg pushing for rotational work.
Chicago tied for 22nd in sacks last season. That number must improve if the defense is going to survive against the quarterbacks on the schedule.
Bush adds speed at linebacker. T.J. Edwards has been activated after a minor offseason strain, and Jack Sanborn returns as an experienced depth option.
Early betting angle: Opposing passing Overs remain relevant when Chicago faces strong offensive lines. The defense becomes more attractive when Allen can create long-yardage situations and disguise pressure.
Bears Secondary Outlook
The secondary has talent and significant health risk.
Jaylon Johnson remains the top outside corner. Tyrique Stevenson and rookie Malik Muhammad provide additional options, while Kyler Gordon is recovering from a soft-tissue injury.
Thieneman should start immediately at safety. Bryant was signed to play beside him but may miss the opening portion of the season. Chicago added veteran Xavier Woods after Bryant’s injury, giving Allen a player with extensive experience in multiple systems.
The Bears led the league in interceptions last season. Repeating that exact total is unlikely, particularly with Byard, Brisker and Nahshon Wright gone.
Betting variable: Do not price Chicago as an elite pass defense solely because of its 2025 takeaway total. Confirm Johnson, Gordon and Bryant before investing in Bears spreads against deep receiving groups.
Chicago Bears 2026 Schedule
| Week | Opponent | Schedule note |
| 1 | at Carolina Panthers | Road opener |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | Division home opener |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | Monday night |
| 4 | New York Jets | Third straight home game |
| 5 | at Green Bay Packers | Division road game |
| 6 | at Atlanta Falcons | Second straight road game |
| 7 | New England Patriots | Thursday night |
| 8 | at Seattle Seahawks | Monday night after mini-bye |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday night |
| 10 | Bye | Midseason recovery |
| 11 | New Orleans Saints | Home |
| 12 | at Detroit Lions | Thanksgiving |
| 13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home |
| 14 | at Miami Dolphins | Road |
| 15 | at Buffalo Bills | Saturday night |
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | Christmas Day |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | Home division game |
| 18 | at Minnesota Vikings | Division road finale |
Chicago has a favorable chance to start well. Three of the first four games are at Soldier Field, and the only road trip is Carolina.
The difficulty increases after the Week 10 bye.
The Bears play Detroit on Thanksgiving, travel to Miami and Buffalo in consecutive weeks, host Green Bay on Christmas and finish with Detroit and Minnesota.
Important schedule variables include:
- Seven standalone national games
- A short week before New England
- Monday-night travel to Seattle
- Thanksgiving at Detroit
- Three consecutive division games to finish the season
- Miami and Buffalo on consecutive road trips
- A Christmas Day rivalry game
The complete schedule is available through the official Bears schedule page.
Chicago Bears 2026 Betting Odds
| Market | Current general range |
| Regular-season win total | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 | Approximately +100 |
| Under 9.5 | Approximately -120 |
| Make playoffs | Approximately -108 to +108 |
| Miss playoffs | Approximately -110 to -126 |
| Win NFC North | Approximately +300 to +305 |
| Win NFC | Approximately +1250 |
| Win Super Bowl LXI | Approximately +2500 to +2700 |
Prices vary by sportsbook and can move rapidly during the preseason. The current market ranges can be compared through ESPN’s Bears betting preview.
Bears Win-Total Analysis
Chicago is good enough to win 11 games again. The question is whether the current number offers value after the market accounts for the breakthrough.
Reasons to Consider Over 9.5
- Williams is entering his second season with Johnson
- The offense can become one of the league’s best
- Swift and Monangai create rushing balance
- Loveland is a breakout candidate
- Wright and Thuney are elite linemen
- Chicago opens with three of four at home
- Johnson provides an important weekly coaching advantage
- The Bears already proved they can win close games
Reasons to Consider Under 9.5
- Chicago produced only about 9.1 expected wins in 2025
- Seven late comebacks are unlikely to repeat
- Takeaways should regress from a league-leading total
- The secondary lost multiple starters
- Bryant, Gordon and other defenders are injured
- Pass-rush production remains uncertain
- Left tackle and center are unsettled
- The final three games are all within the NFC North
- Ten victories are required to cash the Over
Pappy’s PlayBook Preseason Position
Pass at the current price.
The early projection is 10-7, placing Chicago only half a game above the total.
That is not enough separation to play Over 9.5 at even money, and -120 is too expensive for the Under when the offense has a legitimate top-five ceiling.
Price to consider Over 9.5: +120 or better
Price to consider Under 10.5: -115 or better
Pass on Under 9.5: -115 or worse
Automatic pass: Significant injury to Williams, Wright, Thuney, Sweat or Johnson
The division price is more interesting because +300 provides a better return on the same optimistic Chicago outcome than an Over requiring 10 wins.
NFC North and Super Bowl Outlook
Chicago is priced behind Detroit and close to Green Bay despite winning the division last season.
That skepticism is understandable. The Bears benefited from close-game success and turnovers, while Detroit produced a much stronger point differential.
It may still create value.
Johnson and Williams give Chicago a ceiling that is difficult to capture in a simple expected-win model. If the offense becomes more consistent and the defense merely remains average, the Bears can repeat as division champions.
Division price to consider: +325 or better
Make-playoffs price to consider: +115 or better
NFC price to monitor: +1500 or better
Super Bowl price to monitor: +3500 or better
Current recommendation: Pass, with the division price closest to playable
Compare Chicago with the Detroit Lions 2026 season preview, Green Bay Packers 2026 season preview and Minnesota Vikings 2026 season preview before making an NFC North futures decision.
Weekly Bears Betting Angles to Monitor
Track First-Half Offensive Efficiency
Chicago’s 2025 offense repeatedly recovered after slow starts. Improved scripted-drive production would make first-half team totals more attractive.
Confirm Burden’s Workload
Returning for Week 1 does not guarantee full route participation. His practice progression affects Williams props, Chicago team totals and Odunze’s target projection.
Evaluate Left Tackle and Center
Protection matters more than skill-position depth against elite fronts. Downgrade Chicago when either position creates a clear matchup disadvantage.
Expect Turnover Regression
Do not project 33 takeaways as a permanent baseline. Evaluate pressure, coverage and down-to-down defensive success independently.
Monitor the Secondary
Johnson, Gordon, Bryant and Thieneman form a talented group when available. The unit looks very different if multiple players are limited.
Separate the Early and Late Schedule
Chicago’s opening month creates an opportunity. The divisional finish, Buffalo trip and holiday scheduling create a much more difficult closing stretch.
Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Targets
Highest-Upside Target: Caleb Williams
Williams offers rushing production, vertical passing and a second year in an elite scheme. He can finish among fantasy football’s top quarterbacks if his completion rate improves.
Best Early-Round Target: Colston Loveland
Loveland already led Chicago in receiving as a rookie. His alignment flexibility creates a path to high-end TE1 volume.
Safest Running Back: D’Andre Swift
Swift’s receiving role and explosive ability support RB2 value even with Monangai involved.
Best Value Receiver: Luther Burden III
The groin injury may create a draft discount. His target competition is real, but his yards-after-catch ability fits Johnson’s offense perfectly.
Best Breakout Receiver: Rome Odunze
Odunze has a clearer opportunity after Moore’s trade. Health and target conversion will determine whether he becomes a weekly WR2.
Best Handcuff: Kyle Monangai
Monangai already owns standalone rushing value and would become a high-volume starter if Swift missed time.
Player to Draft Carefully: Cole Kmet
Kmet remains important to the offense, but Loveland and Roush can limit predictable route volume.
Bears Defense and Kicker
Chicago’s defense should be drafted for favorable early matchups, not because last season’s interception total is guaranteed to repeat. Cairo Santos remains a stable kicker when Chicago is moving the ball but stalling in the red zone.
Best-Case Scenario
Williams becomes more accurate without sacrificing his explosive creativity.
Odunze, Burden and Loveland form one of the NFC’s best young receiving groups. The offensive line stabilizes, and Swift and Monangai keep Chicago balanced.
Sweat receives help from Booker and the returning defensive linemen, while Thieneman makes an immediate impact and the secondary becomes healthy by October.
In that scenario, Chicago can win 12 games and make a serious run at the NFC Championship.
Worst-Case Scenario
The line struggles at left tackle and center, forcing Williams back into a high percentage of off-script football.
Burden’s groin problem lingers, and the offense loses some of the production Moore previously supplied.
The pass rush remains ordinary, the injured secondary cannot repeat last season’s takeaways and Chicago loses the close games it repeatedly won in 2025.
In that scenario, the Bears could finish 7-10 or 8-9 despite possessing a dangerous offense.
Final Chicago Bears 2026 Prediction
Chicago should remain a playoff contender.
Johnson and Williams give the Bears a high offensive floor, and the skill-position group is deep enough to survive Moore’s departure. Wright, Thuney, Swift, Monangai, Odunze, Burden and Loveland form a legitimate championship-level offensive core.
The hesitation comes from the other side of the ball.
Chicago must create more pressure, replace several defensive backs and avoid depending on another league-leading takeaway total. The schedule also becomes much harder after the bye.
Projected record: 10-7
Projected finish: First or second in the NFC North
Playoff outlook: Wild Card floor with division-title upside
Current futures recommendation: Pass
Early win-total lean: Over 9.5, but only at +120 or better
The Bears can outperform the projection if Williams takes another major step. At the current price, a half-game edge is not enough for a season-long investment.
Visit the Pappy’s PlayBook NFL picks page throughout the season for official selections, playable prices and pass conditions.
Chicago Bears 2026 FAQ
What is the Bears’ 2026 win total?
Chicago’s regular-season win total is 9.5 games. The Under is generally more expensive than the Over.
Who is the Bears’ head coach?
Ben Johnson is entering his second season. His first Bears team went 11-6, won the NFC North and reached the divisional round.
Can Caleb Williams become an elite fantasy quarterback?
Yes. His rushing ability, deep passing and offensive environment create top-five upside. Improving his completion rate is the clearest path.
Who replaces DJ Moore?
There is no one-for-one replacement. Odunze and Burden should receive larger roles, while Loveland and the running backs will also command targets.
Will Luther Burden III be ready for Week 1?
Chicago expects him to have a chance after a preseason-ending groin strain. Bettors and fantasy managers should verify full practice participation before assuming a normal workload.
Who starts at center?
Bradbury provides veteran experience, while rookie Logan Jones is the long-term candidate. The competition should continue through the preseason.
Who is the best Bears fantasy sleeper?
Monangai is the best backfield value. Burden may become the best overall value if his injury lowers his draft price.
Should bettors take Over 9.5 wins?
Not at the current price. The 10-7 projection creates only a narrow edge. A price of +120 or better would provide a more reasonable entry point.
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