I’m releasing another official 20-star MLB bet completely free to my readers.

The original game I considered no longer offered the number I wanted. Rather than chase a worse line or force a bet I no longer believed in, I removed it from the card and rescanned the remaining MLB slate.

That process led me to a much cleaner position in Pittsburgh.

Official Free 20* MLB Bet

Game: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 Runs
Rating: to win $2,000
Playable price: -115 or better
Pass at: -120 or worse
Automatic pass: The total moves to 5.5, Braxton Ashcraft is scratched, Chicago’s lineup changes materially, or the game has already started.

Why I’m Betting the Cubs to Score at Least Five Runs

Chicago’s confirmed lineup features:

  • Pete Crow-Armstrong
  • Seiya Suzuki
  • Michael Busch
  • Ian Happ
  • Nico Hoerner
  • Michael Conforto
  • Carson Kelly
  • Pedro Ramírez
  • Dansby Swanson

That gives the Cubs a combination of power, speed, plate discipline and lineup depth against Pittsburgh starter Braxton Ashcraft.

Ashcraft enters the matchup with a respectable 9-4 record and 3.95 ERA, but those surface-level numbers do not tell the entire story.

His recent contact profile presents several warning signs.

Ashcraft has surrendered eight home runs over his last five starts, while opposing hitters have produced an average exit velocity of approximately 90.5 mph against him during that stretch. His approach also relies heavily on getting hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone.

That could be a problem against a Chicago lineup that has recently demonstrated better plate discipline.

When hitters refuse to expand the strike zone, Ashcraft can be forced into more predictable counts. That increases the possibility of walks, hitter-friendly pitches and extended innings.

Chicago does not need to dominate him from the opening pitch. The Cubs simply need to create enough early traffic to reach Pittsburgh’s bullpen with multiple scoring opportunities still available.

Pittsburgh’s Bullpen Adds Another Scoring Path

This handicap is not based entirely on fading Ashcraft.

The Pirates’ bullpen has recently walked approximately 10.4% of the hitters it has faced, and the relief staff was forced to work during Saturday’s game.

That gives this bet two different ways to cash.

The Cubs can score early against Ashcraft, or they can work deep counts, elevate his pitch total and attack Pittsburgh’s bullpen during the middle and late innings.

Team totals are strongest when the offense has more than one realistic route to the required number. Chicago has both a starter matchup and a bullpen continuation path in this game.

Chicago’s Offense Is Capable of Another Big Performance

The Cubs are coming off an 11-0 victory over Pittsburgh in which they collected 16 hits.

Pete Crow-Armstrong led the way by going 4-for-5 with three runs, two doubles, a home run, three RBIs and a stolen base.

One explosive performance does not guarantee another one, but it shows that Chicago is seeing the ball well and applying pressure throughout the lineup.

The Cubs are not completely dependent on one or two power hitters. They can create offense through extra-base hits, walks, stolen bases and sustained rallies.

That lineup depth matters when we need five runs rather than a specific player to deliver one big swing.

Five Runs Is Not an Outlier for This Offense

Chicago has been one of MLB’s more productive offensive teams this season.

The Cubs had scored 519 runs through 101 games, an average of approximately 5.14 runs per game. That pace ranked among the best in baseball.

Our wager requires Chicago to score five runs.

We are not asking the Cubs to produce an unusual eight-, nine- or ten-run explosion. We are asking a strong offense to reach a number that is directly in line with its season-long scoring average.

That does not make the bet automatic, but it confirms that the market is asking for a realistic offensive performance.

Why I Prefer the Team Total

I prefer Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 to the full-game total because we do not need Pittsburgh’s offense to contribute.

I also prefer it to the Cubs moneyline because Chicago does not have to win the game.

The Cubs could score five runs and still lose 6-5. The bet would cash.

This wager isolates what I believe is the strongest part of the matchup: Chicago’s offense against Ashcraft and the Pirates’ bullpen.

There is no reason to introduce unnecessary variables when the clearest advantage is on one side of the scoring market.

What Could Go Wrong?

Every bet has a loss script, including a 10-star release.

Ashcraft has previously pitched well against Chicago, recording a 2.42 ERA across five appearances, including four starts, against the Cubs.

The wager could lose if that previous success carries over, Chicago draws walks without producing enough extra-base damage, Pittsburgh avoids the crooked inning and the Cubs finish with three or four runs.

That historical success deserves respect, but it is not enough to remove the bet from the card.

Ashcraft’s recent home-run trouble, elevated hard contact, Chicago’s disciplined approach and the vulnerable bullpen behind him outweigh the previous matchup results.

Final Free MLB Pick

This is my strongest remaining position after removing the original Rockies-Brewers wager from consideration.

There is an important lesson here: never become emotionally attached to a game or a number. When the market changes and the original value disappears, move on.

We do not chase.

We do not force action.

We wait until the numbers, matchup and price give us a legitimate reason to place the bet.

For Sunday, that bet is:

Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (20*)